“We're seeing fire behavior that we typically don't see until the middle of August,” said Josh Harvey, the fire management bureau chief at the Idaho Department of Lands. The high heat and dry weather have led to conditions on the ground throughout the Northwest that are normally seen much later in a typical fire season. “The West is a tinderbox this year,” Abatzoglou said. In 2021 all of the ingredients have come together, leaving the region ready for a fire. “You need enough fuel, some fine fuels, you need that fuel to be dry enough, and you need an ignition source to bring all those three things together and you have what it takes for a fire.” “I like to think about the ingredients of fire being somewhat similar to the ingredients you need to start a campfire,” said John Abatzoglou, an associate professor at the University of California Merced’s Climatology Lab. Experts say this shows that the conditions were ripe for the early, strong start to the wildfire season. The Energy Release Component, an index compiled by a collection of government agencies called the National Wildlife Coordinating Group that takes into account plant moisture conditions and is used by fire scientists to gauge fire risk, spiked significantly above average in several states prone to forest fires, including California, Idaho, Montana, Oregon and Washington, following the record-breaking temperatures in late June. This has led to a higher than average number of fires in the region so far this year. This heat, on the heels of an extremely dry winter and spring, and in some places a few such such years, took the region from dry to even drier, allowing even the smallest spark to ignite a conflagration. And with more heat and dry weather expected in the coming months, this fire season could be worse than any in recent times.Īn NBC News analysis of 30 years of fire risk data shows that the heat dome that baked much of the region in late June was the final ingredient needed for explosive fire risk. The huge wildfires currently burning across California and Oregon are the result of a mix of a historic drought, extreme heat and several other conditions that have the area primed to burn, scientists and fire experts say.
Much of the western United States is one unlucky lightning strike or misplaced ember away from a major wildfire, thanks to a rare and dangerous combination of climate conditions.
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